Sunday’s Buffalo Bills-Los Angeles Rams game featured some things you rarely see in the NFL, including an important one: A losing quarterback’s chances of winning NFL MVP have improved dramatically.
Josh Allen was so good Sunday that he may have lost his first MVP award. Given how much weight MVP voters place on being the quarterback on a team with the No. 1 pick, it’s notable that Allen remains far ahead of the MVP odds despite the loss. It may be unprecedented.
Allen is now a heavy -400 favorite to win the NFL MVP at BetMGM after his historic six-touchdown game. He is the first player in NFL history to score three rushing touchdowns and three passing touchdowns in a regular season game. He also had the best game by a quarterback in Yahoo Fantasy Football history.
The Bills lost 44-42 to the Rams and it was a damaging result for their pursuit of the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But the MVP race may be over after what happened in that game.
Josh Allen became a huge favorite
-400 odds for Allen put him close to being a lock to win the award, in the eyes of oddsmakers. The underlying theory for a -400 choice is 80%. If you believe the odds, that leaves a 20% shot with a month left. You have to bet $400 to win MVP at Allen’s current odds of $100.
Allen was already making gains in the race and was a -225 favorite last week. As of last week, BetMGM had more money on Allen to win the MVP than any other player. Allen received 18.6% of bets on MVP.
Those Allen bettors have to feel pretty good now after his big jump.
Allen is having a very good season with 23 passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns. The Bills have already won the AFC East title. The Bills are two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs for the top record in the AFC after Sunday’s loss, and that’s usually bad for MVP hopefuls. 12 of the past 15 MVPs have been quarterbacks from a No. 1 seed That streak includes seven No. 1 seed QBs in a row. But Patrick Mahomes isn’t having a typically great season, which opens the door for Allen.
After Sunday’s game, he will be hard to beat.
Can anyone catch Allen?
There are three other candidates with MVP odds of less than 35-to-1. A late injury to Allen could change the race, as it did for Carson Wentz in 2017 or Jalen Hurts in 2022. And for each of the three there is a way to push:
Saquon Barkley (+400): Berkeley’s path remains the same. He is on pace for 2,122 rushing yards, which would break Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old single-season record of 2,105. If he gets that record and the Eagles get the No. 1 seed, that could be a factor. Voters prefer QBs from the No. 1 seed, so if the best QB (Allen) doesn’t finish atop his conference, they’ll likely value a record-setting return from the top seed.
Lamar Jackson (+1200): Jackson had another outstanding season. Jackson is a quarterback who has played so well over the last four weeks that he can overcome Allen. Jackson’s biggest problem is his team’s 8-5 record. The Ravens trail the Steelers by two games in the AFC North. Good luck winning MVP if your team doesn’t even win a division. But if Jackson gets hot down the stretch and the Ravens win the AFC North, he might have a shot. Bonus points for him if the Ravens finish with at least the same record as the Bills.
Jared Goff (+1400): Goff still remains on the list for a reason, and that is the history of voters wanting to give the MVP to a QB from a No. 1 seed. If the Lions finish with a record like 16-1, there could be some default votes for Goff. He also has very good numbers with a 109.1 passer rating, so votes for him may be justified. Goff’s only shot is if he plays well the rest of the season and the Lions are the NFC’s No. 1 seed. He also has a chance to outplay Allen this weekend when the Lions host the Bills.
There are still four games left and we’ve seen the MVP race shift in the final months of a season before. But the odds starting this week make it clear: It’s Allen’s prize to lose.
