The final stretch of the season is here. With the AFC playoff race almost set, the NFC is scrapping it and many teams are waiting to be officially eliminated from the playoffs.
This week’s Four Verts begins with a category that is the definition of duking it out.
NFC North is living up to the hype
Coming into the season, all four teams in the NFC North had reason for hope. Three of them still do, with the Lions, Packers and Vikings each among the NFL’s elite this season. All three of these teams are likely to make the playoffs barring the upsets of the last few weeks. The Lions command the division as one of the best teams in the NFL, but a big game Thursday night in Detroit could boost the Packers’ chances as the division winner. The Bears, well, are still having a Bears-like season, but the rest of the division is poised to make some noise in the playoffs.
The Lions have been an incredibly dominant team this season, especially on offense. According to TrueMedia, the Lions’ offense ranks first in passing success rate (48.6%), points per drive (2.84), first downs and touchdowns per game (6.44), dropback success rate (53.1%) and rushing attempts (46.9%). . They rank in the top five in most expected points stats and convert 45.7% of their third downs. They put together competent quarterback play, arguably the league’s best running back duo and a rock star offensive line that rattles opposing defenses. Ben Johnson has a huge chest of talent to reach out to, which makes his job as a play-caller that much easier.
Their defense, which has improved this year, faces a tough test against the Packers, who boast an offense that was among the league’s best last season. Since Week 9, the Packers are first in yards per play (6.6), fourth in points per drive (2.76) and third in dropback success rate (51.8%). This offense is playing like a machine and the defense, inconsistent down-to-down, is getting enough turnovers that they’re consistently giving the ball back to an offense that’s on fire. At 9-3, they’re still very much alive for the division title and a high playoff seed if they can play their cards right and get a little lucky.
Sandwiched between them is Minnesota, an upstart team in the league with a 10-2 record that can exceed expectations. The Vikings defense has been one of the best in the NFL this year and Sam Darnold has been steady enough to lead the offense to a possible playoff berth. They still have to play the Packers and Lions (and Bears) one more time before the season ends, but Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores deserve a lot of credit for raising expectations in Minnesota, even if their staff may not. Known as what the Lions and Packers have. It’s hard to say if this is a true Super Bowl contender, but their defense will certainly give them a chance in January.
Then there are bears. Right now, they’re just trying to get to 2025, which is a fair mindset to follow their masterclass on Thanksgiving.
Matt Eberflus may have left at the worst possible time for a coach to leave
People. It’s been almost a week since the Bears’ unprofessional mistake in their loss to the Lions on Thanksgiving, and it’s still unbelievable. The Bears had no choice but to fire dangerous third-year head coach Matt Eberflus after this loss, but it’s still hard not to marvel at how messy the end of his coaching tenure was — and it was partly the Bears’ fault. It’s all over.
The timeout mistake has been talked about ad nauseam, but it really is one of the craziest unforced errors seen at any level of football. The Bears, down 23-20, had a timeout at the edge of field goal range with about 30 seconds left on a running clock. The best way to play it is to run another play, gain some yards, call a timeout, and then try to kick a field goal. However, the Bears players never really got set in time, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams was taking too long to get things moving, and the Bears found themselves running out of time in a hurry. With just six seconds left, Williams snapped the ball, threw a prayer to Rome Odunge that fell incomplete, ending the game. There is no doubt about the sloppiness of the players on the field.
Still, timeout should have been used. They could have kicked a tough field goal, which is definitely better than what they did. Once Eberflus saw that the original plan had just gone completely wrong, the timeout would simply burn. No discussion. Call timeout. After a six-game slide from 4-2 to 4-8 with this latest setback, Eberflus had to go. That part makes sense.
It is not understood how Bierce managed to fire Iberfluss. For whatever reason, Eberflus was able to hold a media conference with reporters after Friday’s game where he said he’s focused on preparing for the 49ers. Shortly thereafter, Iberflus was fired, in what appeared to be somewhat poor taste. If there is no opportunity to correct the mistake, why should he speak? Just let him go after the game and move on. That part was a little weird.
The Bears’ season has turned into a shame fest, which is fair given how some of their games have ended. Their season is definitely over, but at least they have a strong foundation for a new head coach. Could be worse, you could be the raider.
Brock Bowers should be Offensive Rookie of the Year
Quarterback rejected the hive mind! The media won’t let you think they are the only players on the field! Some rookie quarterbacks have played well for their experience level, who deserve praise for their performances this year, but there is one rookie who is playing like one of the best players in the entire NFL — Raiders tight end Brock Bowers.
Bowers has been sensational and should be the hands-down favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year as one of the best tight ends in the league. According to Trumedia data, Bowers is arguably the most productive tight end in the league, especially when considering his volume of targets (and he’s really the only scary offensive threat the Raiders have). Among all tight ends with at least 40 targets this season, Bowers ranks first in receptions (84), yards (884), targets (113) and targets per route (0.28). He also ranks fourth in both routes per route run (2.18) and first downs and touchdowns per route (10.6%). That’s pretty great! Again, not just for a rookie, but that makes him one of the most productive tight ends in the league.
This is not a situation exactly conducive to success for a rookie skill player. The Raiders had a turnstile at quarterback with Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ryder. The Raiders have the worst running game in the league this season. Davante Adams was traded earlier in the season, creating a huge target void for the Raiders. Bowers had to be the immediate guy for the Raiders’ offense to be competitive this season, and he has been.
Overall, Bowers’ 884 receiving yards rank fourth in the league and he leads the entire league in receptions. He had a historically great season as the focal point of the Raiders offense. Yes, the Raiders offense is bad, but they would be completely ineffective without his presence. At this pace, he is on track for 1,252 receiving yards as a rookie, which would break the rookie yards record for a tight end set by Mike Ditka in 1961 (1,076). He is also on pace to join Ditka and Kyle Pitts as the only tight ends in NFL history to have 1,000 yards as a rookie.
If it’s not worth Rookie of the Year, get rid of the award. Bowers being on a bad team shouldn’t be held against him here. Everyone knows the Raiders’ problems run deep and ultimately have limited impact on wins if they are the team’s only top player. He should be the frontrunner for this award and if he can keep it up, win it outright.
The Raiders didn’t think through their draft strategy and went straight to “best player available” and grabbed an absolute superstar in the making. At least they did one thing right!
What exactly are the majors this year?
Let’s keep this short: doubt the chiefs at your own peril. They’ve been uncomfortable with the absurd standards they’ve set for themselves over the past few years, but are still one of the best teams in the league. I care about every single person who takes the time to read this column and I would hate for them to incur the wrath of Patrick Mahomes in the way of the Chiefs contending and homefield advantage for the playoffs.
Ignore scraping the mediocre to downright awful teams of the past. Ignore the Bills early in the season. You know what the deal is with this team. The facts don’t matter. Wait until the playoffs before doubting what this team is capable of. Mahomes is reading everything. Make sure you keep your team safe and don’t add fuel to the fire.
