Two weeks ago, when Josh Allen somehow criss-crossed six different Kansas City Chiefs defenders for a 26-yard touchdown — on a critical fourth-and-2, no less — the Buffalo Bills quarterback punctuated his NFL MVP ballot. Suddenly, what had been a question mark became an exclamation point: Allen had cemented the Chiefs’ first loss of the season in cinematic fashion, leaving CBS broadcaster Jim Nance to capture the breathless joy of many who were exposed to the moment.
“And there he goes! …. Ohhhhhhh game of the year in the NFL!” Nance shouted.
If Allen hadn’t already been in every MVP conversation up to that point, there would be nothing to deny him to the rest. The only question (and it’s always paramount in the MVP race) was whether Allen could harness the momentum going forward. On Sunday, in a classically crafted December blizzard against the San Francisco 49ers, he answered in style. Not only led the way to a 35-10 victory, but also produced the first touchdown “hat trick” scored by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era — throwing, catching and running for a score against the 49ers. That included a touchdown pass that Allen was credited with throwing to himself, in an incredibly improvised moment that left NBC’s Mike Tirico and Chris Collinsworth in the broadcasting booth screaming in disbelief.
In close races, moments like an MVP can be stamped. Presumably that now sets the stage for this week’s debate about the awards, the latest twist in what is shaping up to be one of the most tense votes in recent memory. Even with five more weeks of football left and a trio of crossroads moments still on the table, including Allen, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. Lest we forget, each of these stars conjured up various “race-ending” moments
Just over a week ago, Barkley led the Los Angeles Rams to 255 rushing yards – and 302 yards from scrimmage – and back on track to challenge the league’s single-season rushing record … which is 40 years old and counting. Like Allen this week, the performance was met with a chorus of “just give him the MVP now” and “stop the run.” A week later, Allen responded. Of course, Barkley’s MVP case goes beyond a game or even a hallowed NFL record.
Despite at least eight “tush push” touchdowns at the goal line by quarterback Jalen Hurts, he was still the engine driving the Eagles’ offense in the second half of the season. He has 982 second half rushing yards through 12 games, which puts him ahead of 30 others. complete The team has had better fourth quarters, with 481 yards per carry at 7.4 in that frame. When the Eagles needed him most, Barkley delivered at a historic pace. Just as he did with his 25-yard fourth-quarter touchdown on Sunday, which helped the Eagles put away the Ravens in a game bathed in postseason intensity.
Analysis aside, moments like these are why Barkley is going to get serious MVP consideration down the stretch.
Same goes for Jackson. Just three weeks ago, he was so far ahead of the MVP field that anyone doubted he could make it back into the race. Then the Ravens dropped two of their last three games when facing playoff-caliber opponents — and Jackson’s production dipped in all three games — and suddenly found new life in the race.
But the losses and lack of production don’t really tell the story of how important Jackson was.
Yes, his stats have him on pace to potentially surpass his absurd 2019 MVP season. That alone would put him as the frontrunner in almost any NFL season. But his value to this Ravens team is astounding. Virtually all of Baltimore’s 8-5 record success is built on the backs of Jackson and Derrick Henry. Kicker Justin Tucker is struggling through the most incredible season of his career, the Ravens’ defense is a shadow of itself, and Jackson has sometimes been betrayed by receivers like Jay Flowers and others. Overall, the Ravens’ defensive and special teams EPA ranks 29th in the league. It gives you an idea of what – or more to the point, who – is carrying this team.
For Berkeley and Jackson, these arguments must be weighed by extension. Not to mention the rest of the schedule, which could throw Allen into some turmoil and remix the entire spectrum of arguments. Allen that should not, remember. Much of the rest of the Bills’ schedule is cake, including a three-game capper sandwiching two games against a 3-9 New York Jets team against the 3-9 New England Patriots on the season. Meanwhile, Jackson will see two potential playoff teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans, while the Berkeley Steelers and Washington Commanders will also be available.
Of the three, Allen still has the biggest “stage” moment — coming Dec. 15 on the road against the Detroit Lions, in what’s shaping up to be one of the most anticipated games of this entire regular season. It just puts Allen on a field with another guy who has his own MVP case, Lions quarterback Jared Goff, pitting him against a Detroit defense horribly depleted by injuries and ripe for a season-ending shootout. If Allen needs some sort of closing argument to get his stats around Jackson’s impressive sheet, he’s certainly got the setup for it … with the exception of his last three games (two in Buffalo and the third in Foxboro) in December weather.) Oh, and for the analytics crowd, Allen Leads all NFL quarterbacks in one key “smart stat” metric: EPA (Expected Points Per Game Add) vs. WPA (Win Probability Add) per game, Jackson, Goff, Kansas City Chiefs outside quarterback Patrick Mahomes and every other heavy hitter this season.
For now, it’s all moot for the match in MVP argument. Today’s full-throated campaign for Allen on the heels of an iconic snow game and first quarterback “hat trick” could return to Jackson over the next five weeks, as we dissect aspects of both players’ deep value to their teams. Or it could lean toward Barkley, who could shatter the decade-old season rushing record while igniting a renaissance in running back evaluation across the NFL.
In many ways, the MVP race really begins now. And it promises to be one of the best we’ve seen.
