The 1983 NFL Draft is celebrated for its quarterbacks, and for good reason. It produced three of the greatest quarterbacks of all time: John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly.
It also had some shortcomings. Ken O’Brien was solid, but Todd Blackledge and Tony Eason were first-round disappointments. Taking multiple quarterbacks in the first round and hitting them all is nearly impossible.
So far, the 2024 NFL Draft class is running perfectly.
We’ve seen four of the six first-round quarterbacks in action, and all four should get early grades as wins. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix have all given their franchises reason to feel very good about their future. And while JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. may very well be, we just don’t get to know them enough.
The odds of getting even two stars at quarterback in a draft aren’t very high, even when six are taken in the first round. We may be meeting a special class.
A special class of rookie QB
The 1983 draft is short for a best-case scenario for quarterbacks in the same class, but we should give that title to the 2020 draft. The draft was produced by Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailo, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts. We’ve yet to see if there’s a Marino or Elway in that group, but it’s a deep class.
When a record six quarterbacks were picked in the top 12 in this year’s class, it seemed inevitable that we’d see some busts. There may be some misses, but still no obvious ones.
Daniels has starred most of the season, and he did it again Sunday with three passing touchdowns and another rushing touchdown. Daniels’ passer rating is 99.4, which is close to C.J. Stroud’s mark of 100.4 last season and Dak Prescott’s rookie record of 104.9. Daniels has 590 rushing yards and six scores on the ground.
It’s a tremendous season, but he’s not clear for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Bo Nix has been hotter than Daniels for pushing himself into the running the last few weeks. The Knicks looked pretty good again on Monday night as the Broncos moved into a playoff spot with a win over the Cleveland Browns.
Maye was impressive because of his situation with the New England Patriots. The Patriots have a lot of work to do on a talent-poor roster, but Maye is overcoming that. There were legitimate concerns that Maye might struggle due to the lack of a supporting cast, but he looked as good as any other rookie quarterback this season. The stats don’t match those of his peers, but he looks like a future star like Daniels and (at times) Williams. His 87 rating isn’t terrible, but it doesn’t reflect the plays he made on a bad team. He has shown great passing ability and can also run it.
Williams may be a bit of a mystery, although the high points have been very good. Thanksgiving was another glimpse of potential greatness. He overcame a slow start to lead an epic second-half comeback against the Detroit Lions. He’ll get better now that the Chicago Bears are starting to fix their terrible coaching situation, having fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and head coach Matt Eberflus in the past few weeks. There is no doubt about his talent.
We’ll see if McCarthy and Penix are at that level when they get their shot. McCarthy is out for the season with an injury and Penix sits and Kirk waits behind Cousins, likely not for long if Cousins’ struggles continue. For what it’s worth, both looked good in their limited preseason action.
Just because a quarterback is good as a rookie doesn’t mean he’s here for good. Mack Jones was pretty good as a rookie in 2021 and hasn’t done much since. But the early returns are good, and shaping up to be one of the key stories this season.
Why are so many young QB’s hurting?
It’s not just rookies. A lot of young quarterbacks are playing well. The entire 2020 class is doing well and entering their prime. CJ Stroud has had quite a slump but has a bright future. Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson, a pair of top-five picks last year, have improved after being benched briefly. Brock Purdy has been a great story. Other young quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence have shown flashes and are young enough to make the jump.
Why has there been such a nice hit rate for highly drafted quarterbacks lately, including four for four earlier this year? Not that scouting has come this far, because the 2021 NFL Draft class at quarterback is mostly washed out, and it wasn’t that long ago.
NIL money may be a factor for college players. An extra season of experience has helped rookie quarterbacks who may leave school after the 2022 season in the pre-NIL era. There’s no rush to make the jump to the NFL when you’re making seven figures in college, and we’ve seen inexperienced quarterbacks struggle early in their professional careers. Nix and Daniels also began fifth college seasons due to athletes being granted an extra year due to Covid-19. Having extra film on college prospects helps NFL teams make better decisions at quarterback and avoid mistakes like Trey Lance, who had just 318 career passes at North Dakota State and has yet to make an impact in the NFL despite being the third overall pick. 2021.
Whatever the reason, we may be seeing something special. The class of 1983 will be hard to beat as Elway and Marino are arguably top 10 quarterbacks of all time and Kelly is a Hall of Famer. But if the 2024 class has six stars, or even four, that too will be historic. The first steps have been committed.
