About this time a year ago, the Las Vegas Raiders were supposedly ecstatic.
The malignant approach of fired head coach Josh McDaniels was banished from the franchise, victory cigars were a thing again, players felt heard, and Las Vegas team owner Mark Davis seemed to have renewed optimism in his stride. Even with a subpar 2-3 record in the PM (post-McDaniels) era, things started to feel right again in mid-December 2023. There was hope. And that seemed well established as the rest of the season unfolded.
The Raiders and interim head coach Antonio Pierce would take McDaniels’ 3-5 start and finish it at 5-4. Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell will replace the benched Jimmy Garoppolo and looks like a potential project. Even the skeptical Davante Adams was willing to give the situation another chance. It was all about making something with… well, it was ready. That was a start.
On Sunday, that finally started and completely cratered. In truth, the implosion began at the turn of October, when the 2-2 Raiders began an epic descent into the depths of the AFC, thanks to a losing streak that reached nine games in Sunday’s 28-13 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a loss that dropped Las Vegas to 2 Finished at -11 and tied with the New York Giants for the worst record in the NFL. did – but also without O’Connell, who appeared to suffer a significant leg injury during the loss. And if the NFL draft started today, the Raiders would own the No. 1 overall pick in a tiebreaker and with significant upside.
That 2023 post-McDaniels boom? 2024 Raider is a cinder block locked in a safe buried under the Titanic.
Now that I think about it, hit on the previous assessment. This plume at well-known depths did not begin in October. It started last offseason, when the Raiders knew they had a chronic quarterback problem on their hands and answered by signing journeyman Gardner Minshew II to a two-year, $25 million contract. It was a bridge starter contract in March that finally … built a bridge somewhere. That is unless the ultimate plan is to develop O’Connell — a 2023 fourth-round draft pick with enough talent to lose his starting job to Minshew — into something bigger than anyone expected.
I don’t think that was the plan. I think the Raiders brass, including general manager Tom Telesco, believed Michael Penix Jr. would read enough in the 2024 draft to make his selection work on their own draft board. What the front office didn’t expect was that Penix had a high premium on him in other organizations, and that the 2024 quarterback pool was exponentially better than what was coming in the 2025 pipeline.
If we’re going to be brutally honest about the Raiders, we’ll start with Davis. But that’s a story for another time. We will get there at some point. Instead, let’s bypass Davis for now and point straight to that quarterback spot. Instead of dredging up why Las Vegas didn’t go more aggressive in what could have been a historically great quarterback draft in 2024, let’s just accept that their top pick — tight end Brock Bowers — is a huge mismatch base to build around. And let’s see what are the options for riders.
First, let’s clear up the reporting chaos surrounding the QB situation. Competing claims have been made about whether Davis mandated the selection of a quarterback in the next NFL draft. After talking to a pair of sources inside the team, this is what I’m told: Davis wants some meaningful planning and long-term resolution at the quarterback spot. So far, that hasn’t included the front office directly telling the Raiders what to do or who to draft. HoweverThere is clearly a sense within the Raiders that Davis is not satisfied with the status quo at the position and believes this next offseason will be a pivotal point for the franchise.
With that in mind, here are two primary points that have been pointed out to me.
First, consider the influence of minority owner Tom Brady
Although Brady’s ownership stake in the Raiders is only 5 percent, I’m told a key verbal condition in the deal from Davis to buy Brady into the franchise is that he will weigh heavily in the Ledger’s football operations. And a big part of that responsibility will be fixing — or, at the very least, ruthlessly evaluating — all the moves surrounding the QB depth chart. Davis is looking for an integrity broker when it comes to cutting through the noise. Contrary to what Telesco, Pearce, or anyone else has opined, Brady’s job status isn’t a concern. He has the background to offer a heavy assessment and the freedom to be blunt about it. He doesn’t have to fear Davis’ advantage. And from what I’m told Davis absolutely wants to hear from someone who isn’t worried about getting fired.
As a source put it, “It’s not like we sat in on them and had a meeting with Brady. But [Brady] Not a figurehead [Davis] clearly respects him. This is what he wants and that’s the whole point [of Brady’s ownership]. [Brady] Some will influence the decision, or, he will influence Mark’s opinion. It’s the same thing this time. don’t like it [the front office] Doesn’t matter but it’s not like Mark is going to blow Tom when it comes to quarterbacks and where to go – not happening. It’s the opposite. Mark would ask him, ‘What do you think?’ And then what Mark thinks. … Whatever Tom says about the quarterback, I bet you it is. I think so. Maybe I’m wrong. we will see But I think who [Tom] Likes, likes Mark. we will see It’s going to be a ride.”
If that’s the case, Brady could be the Raiders’ quarterback pick for 2025. And maybe he will be.
With that in mind, if the Raiders end up with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, it’s worth examining the strong longtime relationship he had with Colorado quarterback Shadeur Sanders, whom Brady has always known on a personal basis. Go back to Shedeur’s days as a nationally recruited high school player at Texas. Over the years, Brady coached, mentored and repeatedly raved about Sanders’ talent and work ethic. And it’s worth noting that Sanders also fits Brady’s ideal: a quarterback who took his time to learn and develop his craft within a program. Yes, Sanders followed his father, Deion Sanders, into two different colleges — first at Jackson State and then at Colorado — but he could have entered the draft after his 2023 season and been selected within the first two rounds. But he returned to Colorado instead, sharpening a resume that should make him a first-round hammer lock in the 2025 election process.
And not that it matters — but it kind of works with Shadeur Sanders — Dion appears on video telling Pierce to “draft those Sanders guys,” referring to Shadeur and his brother, Colorado safety Shiloh Sanders, who is also projected as a late-round pick. . election
It’s hard to ignore that all of this has a lot of charm. If the New York Giants don’t take the No. 1 pick in the draft — which, at this point, the Giants prefer to land at that spot — that leaves the Raiders in a position to take Davis. There’s been an interesting interaction … and who Brady clearly likes.
This leads us to the second point to which I have been directed.
Second, Mark Davis is going to be tight with money, but there is plenty of room to build around a rookie QB.
Realistically, a few more names are going to come up in the Raiders’ attempt to solve their quarterback problem. Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings — if he hits free agency, which is debatable at this point — should be extremely interested in a player from Las Vegas.
If he continues on his current trajectory, Kirk Cousins of the Atlanta Falcons is another capable veteran starter who could find himself available this next offseason. Aaron Rodgers? His name will be publicized.
One thing I want everyone to remember about all these other names: At this point, they’re more expensive than a rookie quarterback. Unless the Vikings sign Darnold and then trade current rookie JJ McCarthy — or the Falcons suddenly choose to move on from Penix, which seems less likely than not — the best options on the table are going to be expensive. Acquiring McCarthy or Penix on a rookie deal would be great, but I’d bet that both will have the same valuation as Sanders by the end of this draft rotation. That means you draft Sanders instead of complicating your life.
What about Darnold in free agency? If he finishes the season strong, he’s going to make $40 million per year (and possibly $50 million by the end of this season) in open-market bidding. Cousin by trade? I highly doubt Atlanta would be willing to eat most of his accelerated salary cap just to get Penix, so he’d be fairly expensive as well. Rogers? It is not even right to dissolve his candidacy. There is no reason for the Raiders to sign Rodgers and no reason for Rodgers to play for Las Vegas. At this point it would be a disaster for both sides.
The likely path — that’s what I’ve been told by two Raider sources — is to target potential extensions within the team and then prioritize the selection of the best rookie quarterback, followed by a retrospective development of the roster. Does this mean the pivot could be away from Pierce after just one season as head coach? It all depends on how the 2024 campaign ends and the options available to pair with a new starting quarterback.
What is clear at this point is that there is no defined, locked-in plan. There are still four games left, this weekend against a Falcons team that is struggling to make ends meet in the NFC and the season finale in Week 18 against a Los Angeles Chargers franchise that may need a win later in the season. In between, two winnable games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints could push the Raiders from the No. 1 seed.
It’s a tough position for this franchise. But one that has roots much earlier. And at this point, there’s no one to blame but Raiders ownership, which should have come this way.
